What is the future of the drone market? Yuriy Lazebnikov, a managing partner of the international holding TECHIIA, one of whose offices is located in Los Angeles, studied the development trends of unmanned technologies. He wrote his thoughts on this in the Fast Company column. Below is a short summary.
1. Engines are getting more powerful
Lithium batteries are the most common drone power supply today. Their capacity grows by a few percent every year, and the batteries are great for lightweight wing-type drones or quadcopters for short distances.
But, for example, for the transportation of heavy loads, the power of lithium batteries will not be enough. Therefore, engineers are looking for alternatives. The two main areas are hybrid electric-gasoline engines and hydrogen engines.
Hybrids are already used in experimental models: the world record for staying in the air for multi-rotor drones (13 hours) was set by a device with just such an electric-gasoline engine.
And presumably, we are going to see a boom in hydrogen drones. Hydrogen, an environmentally friendly and cheap fuel, demonstrates high energy intensity. With the same weight as a lithium battery, a hydrogen fuel cell produces three times as much energy.
2. Drones are getting bigger
Unmanned delivery is just starting to pick up steam. The carrying capacity of commercial drones is still small. Alphabet’s Wing drones carry packages weighing 2.5 pounds, Walmart’s — 3 pounds. Amazon promises to establish a service for the delivery of five-pound parcels. But the market demands more — and along with these demands, the size of drones is growing.
Today’s prototypes, like the Rhaegal drone, can lift 829 pounds. Such machines are required in the field of construction and maintenance of complex and remote facilities. For 2021, investments in the Advanced Air Mobility segment, which develops heavy drone technologies for transporting cargo and passengers, increased five times.
3. Drones are getting smarter
Drones of the future are fully autonomous devices that operate without the participation of an operator, based on artificial intelligence systems. To fly along a given route and avoid collisions with other drones, houses, and natural obstacles, drones must analyze data and make independent decisions based on it.
We are talking about collision avoidance systems when working in a confined space (dense urban areas, for example), systems to increase maneuverability, and even self-destruction systems, which are necessary for situations in which a damaged drone can lead to disaster.
4. The market is changing its approach
The biggest important industry trend, according to the entrepreneur, is in the way drones are used. It is implemented, for example, by Culver Aviation.
Commercial drones are not very profitable to buy as they also require infrastructure, service, and operators. Therefore, providers have proposed a new model of using drones — Drone-as-a-Service (DaaS), that is, a turnkey solution on demand.
With DaaS, you don’t need your own fleet of drones. On request, you can carry out a mapping study of a vast territory, monitor the status of a crop, or set up a temporary mobile network using flying towers — drones that transmit a signal.
“I see the future of commercial drones of just this format: energy efficient, with minimal human involvement, with simple requirements for the customer’s competencies, and maximum result for business,” summarizes Yuriy Lazebnikov, managing partner of TECHIIA Holding.
