Before his visit to Moscow last week, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visited the Turkish capital, Ankara. There he met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Guterres praised the Turkish leader for his diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis caused by the Ukraine war.
A Reuters report, citing various diplomats, said that while the UN Secretary General and Erdogan were shaking hands, the West’s expectations of Ankara’s role in ending the war were heightened. The West hopes that Ankara will play a key role in mediating between Russia and Ukraine. Western relations with Ankara are also expected to improve in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.
Turkey’s relations with the Western world have soured, with rights activist Osman Kavala focusing. In April, a court in Istanbul sentenced Kavala to life in prison. He was convicted in 2013 of being involved in an attempt to overthrow the government. Turkey has ignored the call from the West, especially the United States, to release Osman. Many consider this incident to be politically motivated.
Eight diplomats told Reuters that the court’s ruling on Kavala had had a negative effect on economic and political relations with the West.
However, the war in Ukraine has created opportunities for new friendly relations with Turkey in the Western world. Turkey has initiated talks with the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine. Ankara wants Western world to prepare for war. The country has demanded the lifting of sanctions on Turkey’s defense sector. Turkey wants more cooperation among NATO allies, including the United States, France and Italy, to end the war.
Several diplomats say there are fears that Erdogan could lose the 2023 election. He did not have much success in the commercial field.
However, Erdogan and Turkish officials believe that the Russia-Ukraine war has made Western countries realize the geopolitical importance of Turkey. Recently, Erdogan’s spokesman and chief foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin paid a surprise visit to Kiev. He arranged to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ibrahim Kalin later said he had discussed the issue with Zelensky.
Diplomats say that if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues until the end of the summer, Turkey will be under pressure from the West to increase its support for Ukraine. Turkey has sent armed drones to Kiev. Russia has closed some waterways in the Black Sea. Russia has blocked flights to Syria.
Another diplomat said Turkey’s position on mediation between Russia and Ukraine and its position against sanctions on Moscow would not last long.
The diplomat also said that Russia could create economic pressure on Turkey if it leans towards Ukraine under pressure from the West. Tourists, oil spills — Russia could hurt Turkey in all these respects.
Rising fuel prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war have led to a rise in currency crises and inflation in Turkey. For these reasons, Erdogan is worried about winning or losing the 2023 election.
Some analysts believe that Erdogan exerted influence over the life sentence handed down to Kavala by human rights activist. Biral Baskan, a researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said Erdogan wanted the West to recognize him as a powerful man.
Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for two decades. Western leaders have criticized Turkey’s crackdown on human rights and dissent. Germany has summoned the Turkish ambassador to Berlin over Kavala’s verdict. Ankara summoned the German ambassador in response. Washington criticizes such behavior as irrational.
At the time, however, Turkey said its courts were independent. Turkey has not listened to internal and international criticism over Cavela’s verdict.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey has approved flights from Moscow. Fund allocation and trade relations are also maintained. Three Western diplomats say such actions could lead the United States and Europe to ban Turkey’s trade with Moscow.
But the United States and the West want the war to end at the right time. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said last week that Washington wanted to prove Moscow weak. The West wants Turkey’s success as a mediator in World War II. And for that reason, the West hopes that Turkey will reconsider its relationship with Russia.
