Simmering tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border have alerted world leaders looking to avert a full-on crisis. Russia is said to have assembled about 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and another 30,000 are in Belarus conducting largescale war drills. The USA has made statements threatening Russia with economic sanctions as Putin-Biden talks have steadily progressed.
In response to the Russian actions, countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have also started amassing troops on their own borders. Countries like France and Germany have started sending troops to nations sharing land boundaries with Russia, looking to retaliate any advances by the Russian army. The USA has also sent around 3,000 more troops to Ukraine. Diplomatic efforts are in full swing as there is fear among the NATO leaders that Russia could invade increasingly pro-West becoming Ukraine.
India having remained quiet for over a month made appeals for a diplomatic resolution to the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. India had abstained from a procedural vote at the United Nations after negotiations with Russia, a move that was later interpreted as a pro-Moscow stance. The vote went ahead as a US-led group of ten countries agreed to the discussion.
Russia has made its demands clear as it most importantly, looks to stop the expansion of NATO by preventing the organization from inviting new members within its fold. Russia has stated that it wants the NATO troops to move out of previously Soviet States and asks for a commitment from the USA that Ukraine will not be inducted into NATO. Further, it also wants security guarantees for the future.
NATO and its associated members want the Russian troops to back off from the borders where they have gathered. Russia has been asked by NATO to stop interfering and playing political war games with its neighbor Belarus. According to a letter leaked to a Spanish newspaper, NATO is open to discuss security guarantees but not to make any obligations on independent states joining NATO. It has also demanded guarantees that Russia will not invade Ukraine although the Russians stated that they have no intentions of doing so but the troops on the border suggest otherwise.
On February 15, 2022, Russia said that some of its forces near the Ukrainian border would be withdrawn to their bases, marking the first major step towards de-escalation in weeks of crisis with the West. Russia however, has continued with “large scale” military operations in a number of regions, including joint exercises in Belarus and naval maneuvers in the Black Sea and other locations.
It is clear, that an all-out conflict can surely be avoided as a “crucial window” for diplomacy remains open, but the risks of having tens of thousands of soldiers stationed at the borders must be considered. India is at a crucial juncture if international affairs are concerned. Aside from wishing peace, India must carefully analyze how any battles will alter regional allegiances and the power balance in its neighborhood.
