The prevalence of legal sports betting has brought millions of people into the expensive hobby. Many new players are beginning to realize that it won’t be easy to beat the house.
But at least it’s not unrealistic to give yourself a better chance. A look at the habits and tools used by smart bettors, also known as ‘sharp’, ‘pros’, and ‘smart people’, gives clues as to how the pros maintain their track record.
Here are three things you can do to get a chance to stand up to the house.
Know Your Betting Break-even Point
The break-even percentage is the percentage required to win a particular bet in order to break even in the long run. If the odds are more generous than the break-even bet, you will have an advantage over the house. The greater the difference, the greater the advantage.
This series explores the impact of legalized gambling on sports through coverage, accountable journalism, and advice for navigating this new situation.
First, consider a simple coin toss. The odds of betting on the outcome are 50%.
The probability of a coin being head is half and the probability of being a tail is half.
When it comes to sports betting, the fair money line equivalent for such bets would be +100. Bet $100 and win $100. Odds of 50-50 are above breakeven, so betting on a money line better than +100 (the breakeven percentage is less than 50%) makes the coin flip bet a winning proposition over time.
At odds worse than +100, the breakeven point can exceed 50% and reduce your bankroll. For example, if a coin toss offers odds of -110, betting $110 and winning $100, as seen in the Super Bowl, your edge is worse than non-existent. Expect to lose 5 cents for every dollar wagered.
If the odds are +110 (bet $100 and win $110), you could win 5 cents for every dollar you wager. Sports betting isn’t as black and white as the toss of a coin, but being able to measure your odds of winning a bet can help you determine how wisely you’re spending your money. Suppose he scores in a baseball game and decides that he has a 70% chance of team A beating team B.
To win this bet long-term, you need a money line of -233 or higher. Similarly, odds higher than +233 for Team B (meaning they have a 30% chance of winning) are also considered good betting opportunities.
The formula for calculating the break-even point depends on whether the money line is positive or negative.
If the money line is negative, take the absolute value of the money line and divide by itself plus 100. For example, if the money line is -110, the breakeven point is 110/(110+100) = 52.4%.
If the money line is positive, divide 100 by the money line + 100. The breakeven point for the +110 money line is 100/(110+100) = 47.6%.
Bet Early In The Week, Not Last Minute
All markets start with an opening line that is first available for betting. These are usually less restrictive than lines closer to game time to limit house exposure.
Ultimately, the opening line is just the first guess as to what the proper market should be. By the time of play, conventional wisdom and betting action have resulted in a mature market, often with lower prices compared to what was previously available.
In football, try to focus your bets on the starting line, including lookahead lines that are released a week early. In 2021, there were 32 NFL favorite openings at -2.5, the key number above.
This price rose 19 times, remained unchanged 10 times, and only three times he had an opening line worse. An opening line of -6.5 will improve 7 of 12 in 2021. If the price is above -110, betting blindly on these numbers at the opening or forward line is a good strategy.
Avoid Parlays, Especially Single Game Parlays
Parleys bring tremendous luck to the home. In May, Louisiana reported her $12.4 million in earnings from Parley alone, which is more than 48% of her total earnings.
According to UNLV’s Center for Gaming Research, in-state betting companies earn an average of 32.1 cents per dollar wagered on parlays, compared to just 5 cents per dollar directly wagered. Think of Parley as a high-yield credit card. So when you are spending time on finding the best online UK sportsbooks make sure to avoid looking at single-game Parleys altogether.
They’re very good for books, not good for gamers – and has two reasons for that:
They are hard to beat and the odds offered on single-game combinations can vary significantly from their full betting counterparts. The latter is especially true when the bets are correlated. That is, one can influence the likelihood of the other.
Parlay, for example, correlates with the player who hits a home run and the total number of runs passed since the home run essentially increases the score. This parlay pays less than a parlay where the same player hits a home run, and the total is Under even if his bet is Over/Under at the same odds.
If you want to play combinations, wait for the odd makers to offer risk-free promotions across the stakes. This isn’t just an ‘insurance’ where he gets a refund if one of the legs loses. It’s also best to swing the fence with these promotions.
After all, they are risk-free. If you don’t want to wait, make sure the odds offered on each leg are higher than your bet’s breakeven point, as described above. This allows you to receive a reasonable return for your risk.
