So you want to enter the world of MLB prop bets, huh? It’s a great way to make some daily income, however, it is by no means easy. To be a successful MLB prop bettor, you need to understand the market you’re betting on to properly find your niche. What exactly does all that high level conceptual jargon mean? Well, the first step to any betting strategy is actually picking which market to enter. Did you play baseball growing up? Were you a pitcher or a hitter? Gauging your own domain expertise is a good starting point to properly assess the quality of your subconscious bias (more on this later). Plus, you can’t be an expert in every betting market – don’t listen to anyone who tells you otherwise.
The good news is, on popular sportsbooks like Draftkings and Fanduel, there are an enormous amount of MLB prop bet market options available for you to choose from. The bad news is, they can be pretty overwhelming to digest all at once, and you may feel like giving up before even getting started! For context, just for an individual batter alone, you can bet over/under on every single one of the following statistics: Home Runs, Hits, Singles, Doubles, Total Bases, RBIs, Runs Scored and Stolen Bases. Let me save you the research and stress – if someone could accurately predict when a player was going to hit a homerun, he’d be getting 9 figure offers from every MLB team to be their general manager. It’s simply too unpredictable. Stick to the high probability MLB prop bets – don’t get sucked into the get rich quick bets.
So what exactly are these high probability prop bets? Well you see, certain statistics in baseball are extremely predictable. Ask yourself this, what’s the first thing you think of when pondering whether your favorite MLB team is going to win their game tonight? Is it “our best hitter is in a slump” or is it “who’s the opposing team’s pitcher”. I bet most of you thought of the latter, and perhaps to a much smaller degree, the former. It follows that to be successful at winning MLB prop bets, you should focus predominantly on pitching prop bets. When a pitcher is on his game and painting the corners, he controls the outcome – no matter how good the hitter at bat is. You’ve probably heard the old saying that as a hitter in baseball if you fail 70% of the time you make it to the hall of fame. Well as a pitcher, if you fail 70% of the time you’ll be in the market for a new career, very soon.
The next logical question you might have is, “who do I bet on?” The best advice I can give in one paragraph is – if someone had consistent, successful, prop bet predictions, they’d charge money for it. Put simply, we don’t recommend searching twitter or google for free prop bet predictions. Imagine yourself as the person running this “free twitter account” – if you were so confident in your bets making money, why in the world would you post them for free? You wouldn’t.
The people who know what they’re doing, know what they’re doing because they’ve put in the work. Furthermore, the best prop bet predictions are fully data driven. The human brain has a very biased, short term memory and was just not meant to make unbiased decisions. We’re wired to take recent experience and prioritize it for our own survival. As a solution to this, there’s a whole world out there of algorithms, equations, and statistics, that when put to good use, can help you get an edge on the market. There are two options here – either you learn the field of data science, or you subscribe to a website that is run by data scientists. The latter will be a much quicker route to profit.